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Cowen Warning: Altcoin rise sharply in the short term, but will plummet when BTC adjusts.
According to analyst Benjamin Cowen, the growth momentum of the crypto market in August could remain strong. According to his baseline scenario, altcoins will continue to be bullish against Bitcoin for the remainder of the month, but when compared to Ethereum, the picture is not very consistent. According to Cowen, altcoins may surpass Bitcoin in August, but they won't be as strong as Ethereum until ETH approaches its peak. It's hard to miss a strong and large breakout on the daily chart of the ETH/USD pair, as the price has surged past the $4,700 mark with good trading volume and has expanded well beyond the key moving averages.
Although the RSI indicator is clearly in the overbought zone, it also suggests that the market may be running out of steam. On the other hand, Bitcoin has not strongly broken above the $121,000 level. The structure of Bitcoin is being more tightly controlled and the RSI is only slightly overbought, even though it has surpassed the resistance level. Cowen's argument that ETH remains a stronger asset in the short term and that most altcoins are being held back compared to it is reinforced by this relative performance gap. Cowen warns that a significant BTC price correction could occur in September. According to him, this move will cause Ethereum to drop below its ATH, leading to a larger wave of sell-offs in altcoins. Considering that September is typically a weak month for the crypto market, with unstable recoveries or deeper pullbacks, this aligns with historical seasonality. A Few More Weeks for Altcoin According to the roadmap, he believes that altcoin traders may experience a few more weeks of favorable volatility compared to Bitcoin. However, if Bitcoin does indeed undergo a significant correction in September, the subsequent market pressure could push alternative coins lower by the end of October or early November, potentially returning to previous lows before the next long-term bullish trend. Market sentiment may change at the beginning of autumn, but August could still be a good time for selective altcoin trading, especially trades that leverage the strength of the BTC pair. Due to the expected volatility remaining high as ETH reaches all-time highs and Bitcoin tests its breakout strength, risk management is crucial to surviving in the coming months.