Ethereum Price Prediction: Can On-Chain Accumulation and Institutional Demand Support ETH's Surge to $4000?

Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading at $3,786, down about 3.7% from the local high of $3,933 reached on July 28. This pullback comes after a big pump of 56% over the past 30 days, which is a normal technical correction. The derivatives market remains hot, with Ethereum futures volume increasing by 28.33% to $111.23 billion, despite a slight decrease in open contracts by 1.45% to $57.5 billion. On-chain data shows that over the past 30 days, exchanges have seen an outflow of over 1 million ETH, indicating long-term accumulation signs. At the same time, the Ethereum spot ETF continues to attract strong capital, with a net inflow of $65.14 million on July 28, bringing the total monthly inflow to over $5.1 billion, highlighting institutional investor demand. Although short-term overbought signals are present technically, key moving averages provide solid support, and a breakthrough of $3,960 could restart the path to attack $4,000.

Ethereum is currently experiencing a technical pullback, and derivation trading is active

The price of Ethereum has retreated from the monthly high of $3,933 reached on July 28, currently trading around $3,786, a decline of about 3.7%. This pullback comes after a strong rise of 56% over the past 30 days, representing a healthy technical adjustment. It is worth noting that although the 24-hour Spot trading volume decreased by 12.2% to $26.1 billion, the derivatives market shows continued interest. According to CoinGlass data, the total trading volume of Ethereum futures has significantly increased by 28.33%, reaching $111.23 billion. Meanwhile, the open interest volume has only slightly decreased by 1.45% to $57.5 billion.

The rise in volume accompanied by a slight decline in open interest usually indicates that the market is undergoing short-term profit taking or position rotation, rather than a large-scale liquidation event. This suggests that traders remain active but are not over-leveraging, and the market sentiment is relatively stable.

On-chain whales continue to accumulate, ETF institutional buying is strong

On July 28, on social media X, on-chain analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that over 1 million ETH flowed out of centralized exchanges in the past 30 days. The sharp decline in exchange reserves usually indicates that investors are transferring assets to non-custodial wallets (non-custodial wallets) or cold storage (cold storage).

This pattern is often seen as a signal for long-term holders to accumulate, effectively alleviating short-term selling pressure and creating conditions for future price rises.

In addition, the Ethereum Spot Exchange-Traded Fund remains a strong source of demand. According to SoSoValue data, a net inflow of $65.14 million was recorded in just one day on July 28. Throughout July, the total inflow of funds into the Ethereum Spot ETF has now surpassed $5.1 billion, continuously confirming the strong interest from institutional funds. Even in the face of short-term price fluctuations, this force also helps stabilize market confidence.

Technical indicators show Overbought, key support looks at 3680-3700 USD

From a technical analysis perspective, the Ethereum daily chart remains above all important Moving Averages (Moving Averages), and the overall upward trend (upward trend) has not changed. The ETH price is currently above its 10-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) and Simple Moving Averages (SMA), confirming trend consistency across multiple time frames.

However, short-term oscillators (short-term oscillators) are showing signs of fatigue:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the Overbought area, with a reading of 74.6.
• Stochastic Oscillator ( is close to the high position of 89. Both indicators point to a short-term slowdown in upward momentum.

These readings suggest that ETH may experience a brief pullback or enter a consolidation phase )consolidation phase( before attempting to break higher price levels. Although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bullish, maintaining a strong positive crossover )positive crossover(, other indicators such as the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) are beginning to flatten, indicating potential hesitancy )potential hesitancy( in buying.

The current price of Ethereum is approaching the Bollinger Bands ) upper band, which usually indicates the beginning of a cooling-off period ( or price reversion ). If a pullback occurs, the $3,680 to $3,700 range (corresponding to the 10-day EMA) will provide the first key support.

If the price continues to fall below the support area, it may trigger a deeper pullback, targeting around 3,480 USD. However, such a trend may require the trigger of macro pressure (macro pressure) or ETF demand reversal (ETF demand reversal).

On the upside, if it can effectively break through and stay above $3,960, the psychological level of $4,000 will become the focus again. If the trading volume can increase again and the market momentum stabilizes, the target range for the next round of ETH rise can be seen at $4,200 to $4,300.

Conclusion: The short-term technical pullback and overbought signals of Ethereum have triggered some profit-taking, but the continuous accumulation by on-chain whales (with millions of ETH flowing out of exchanges) combined with strong institutional buying through ETFs (with a monthly inflow of $5.1 billion) provides solid support for the market. The increase in futures trading volume against the trend indicates that the derivatives market still has momentum. Key moving averages show dense support, with the $3680-$3700 area becoming an important defensive line. Although a short-term consolidation may occur, a breakout above $3960 would reignite expectations to challenge the $4000 mark. Investors need to closely monitor Ethereum exchange reserve changes, ETF capital flows, and key support level defense to assess the depth of the pullback and the timing of a new upward assault. Institutional buying behavior and the on-chain accumulation trend remain the core logic for a bullish outlook in the medium term.