Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH rose over 50% in July, open contracts reached a historical high, is the 4k USD barrier about to be broken?

Ethereum (ETH) performed strongly in July, with a rise of over 50%, marking the best monthly performance since 2022. On-chain data shows that over 98% of ETH supply is in profit, and exchange reserves continue to decline, indicating accumulation signs. Meanwhile, ETH futures open interest has surpassed $60 billion for the first time, setting a record. The current price is consolidating below the key resistance level of $4000, and market observers analyze that the strong fundamentals combined with high open interest may indicate an imminent breakout, rather than mere speculative bubble. This article combines on-chain data and market sentiment to deeply analyze Ethereum's price movement.

Ethereum closed strong in July, with record rise

As July comes to a close, Ethereum's native token ETH has achieved over 50% returns, marking its largest monthly rise since 2022. However, this is not just a price surge. The futures Open Interest ( has just reached an all-time high, breaking the $60 billion mark for the first time. Meanwhile, as of the time of writing (July 29), the ETH price is hovering about 3.4% below the $4,000 level. This raises the question of whether traders are in possession of favorable news that the market has not fully priced in yet. So, is this strategic conviction ), or blind market optimism?

New highs in futures open interest, spot supply continues to tighten

Ethereum kicked off the third quarter with a breakthrough, achieving the largest monthly bullish candle in years. Clearly, its risk-reward setup (risk-reward setup) continues to heat up. On-chain data shows that over 98% of the circulating supply of ETH is currently in profit, even surpassing the 97% level triggered during the last (2020) U.S. presidential election cycle's distribution phase (distribution phase). Although market momentum (market momentum) is strong, the risks are also increasing.

It is noteworthy that even though realized profits have surged to $1.25 billion (close to the level of $4007 at the peak of the last election cycle), the price of ETH remains stable. There has been no significant collapse, nor signs of panic selling. This indicates strong buying support below. The data supporting this view is: Ethereum's exchange reserves ( were close to 20 million ETH at the beginning of July. Fast forward to now, the reserves have dropped to 19 million ETH - which means a total of 1 million ETH has been withdrawn. This is not profit-taking, but a clear accumulation signal ). Additionally, the aggressive accumulation of liquidity in the futures market and the surge in open positions to new highs make it look more like strategic positioning ( rather than blind speculation ).

Considering the above factors, is $4000 just the next stop in this round of ETH's rise?

Are Ethereum traders betting on a $4000 breakthrough?

As of the writing of this article, the price of Ethereum is only 3.4% away from the $4000 barrier. When the price reached $3941, the relative strength index (RSI) had once been overbought above 85, followed by a mild intraday correction of 0.87% — this is a typical local rotation (local rotation) signal.

At this moment, some opportunistic shorts (opportunistic shorts) are starting to enter the market, betting that the price will form a local top in the current area. As the price approaches a key resistance level, fading the move (fading the move) seems to be a seemingly "smart" trading strategy. In fact, the 12-hour liquidation heatmap (liquidation heatmap) shows two dense short liquidity bands (short liquidity bands) forming, with a strong liquidation cluster of up to $115 million existing below $3980. If the current upward momentum continues, this will become fuel for a short squeeze (short squeeze).

Combined with strong on-chain fundamentals, the current mainstream futures position layout looks more like a calculated high leverage deployment (calculated leverage deployment), rather than pure speculative froth (speculative froth).

If this market structure is maintained, Ethereum consolidating below $4000 will create ideal conditions for short sellers to continue adding positions, thereby compressing the liquidity band on the short side. Conversely, this will form a textbook squeeze pre-structure (pre-squeeze structure), which can easily trigger a clean breakout of the ETH price above the $4000 mark.

Conclusion: Ethereum's strong performance in July, record-high open interest in futures contracts, continuous outflows from exchange reserves, and high profitability ratios in on-chain data collectively paint a bullish picture. Although short-term technical indicators show overbought conditions and may face resistance level corrections, the market depth and short positioning suggest that any pullback may be brief and build momentum towards the critical psychological level of $4000. Investors need to closely monitor Ethereum on-chain indicators and changes in cryptocurrency market liquidity to determine whether this is a signal for a continuation of the bull market or a formation of a short-term top. Whether ETH can successfully break through and hold above $4000 will be a key test of the market momentum for this round of price increase.